Warmer weather, rising non-Opec output threaten oil market balance

Wednesday, 15 Nov, 2017

Natural gas use will grow quickly, by 40 percent by 2040.

Unless OPEC agrees to cut more production, output from non-member states will leave the market in surplus and limit the rally in oil prices, the IEA said. That means that, despite the rapid deployment of wind and solar power worldwide, global Carbon dioxide emissions will continue to rise until 2040, "far from enough to avoid the severe impacts of climate change", the IEA said. It kept its estimate for this year at 3.08 million bpd.

The agency also pointed to the future development of renewable energy sources, saying that they are expected to capture two-thirds of global investment in power plants through to 2040 as they become the lowest-cost source of new power generation in many countries.

The US government said on Monday US shale production in December would rise for a 12th consecutive month, increasing by 80,000 bpd.

After hitting a 10-year low of less than $30 in January, down from a peak of more than $100 in mid-2014, oil prices have recently been hovering around the $55 mark.

Oil prices have risen in recent months, after both Opec and non-Opec countries struck a landmark deal at the end of a year ago to cut back production to combat a global oil glut. However, this is expected to cut only 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd), or about two per cent, off global oil demand by that time.

GIRAFFE ALERT: Could April the giraffe be expecting another baby?
But April is also letting Tajiri explore his surroundings, so that he can become as independent as his father is. The baby, her fourth child, was named Tajiri, a Swahili word that means hope.

The IEA noted that output by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries was down by 830,000 bpd year-on-year in October, although demand for the group's crude is expected to fall to 32.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter of this year and to 32.0 million bpd in the first quarter of 2018.

"Over the same period, United States gas companies ramped up their exports to Canada and Mexico, pushing net U.S. imports of pipeline gas down to around 25 bcm in 2016, compared with 80 bcm some ten years earlier", IEA economists said. Global energy demand is 30 per cent higher by 2040 - but still half as much as it would have been without efficiency improvements.

"Prices ... are starting to look like a pause or pullback is needed", said Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at futures brokerage AxiTrader.

The International Energy Agency said the oil industry's hopes for a higher, stable crude prices trading between $50 to $60 a barrel could be dashed soon if the supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions pushing prices upward prove temporary.

Between 2017 and 2040 the IEA estimates that more solar power capacity will be added globally each year than any other source of energy, with an annual average increase of almost 70 gigawatts.